Same Score, Different Person

Module 3 · Risk Tool Lessons

Same score. Different profiles.

Two people can have the same risk score and still be very different. This happens because risk scores combine multiple factors into a single number.

Key takeaway

Risk scores summarize information—they do not fully represent it.

Same Score Does Not Mean Same Person

The figure below shows a simple example. Both individuals receive the same total score, but they get there in different ways.

One person has greater prior history
The other has more recent needs, such as substance use or employment

The idea: Different pathways can produce the same score.

Illustration

Same score, different pathways

Two people can receive the same total score even when the factors behind that score look very different.

Two individuals with the same total risk score but different underlying profiles

The total score summarizes the profile, but it does not show every difference that produced that score.

Why This Happens

Risk tools combine several factors into one total score. That total score can be useful, but it also compresses information.

Because the same score maps to the same predicted probability of recidivism, two people with the same score may be treated as equally “risky,” even when their underlying profiles are very different.

Why This Matters

Individuals with the same score may need different interventions
A single number can hide meaningful differences
Interpretation requires looking beyond the total score

Bottom Line

Same score does not mean same person. Risk scores summarize information, but they do not fully represent the individual profiles behind the number.

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